EGX30 Sell Signal 19 August 09

The main index did it today and shows sell after the taken of the pivot 6232 and closing under it (-1.7%)

breakout of today’s low 6187 confirm this and breakout of its high tells that there is either false sell or coming congestion …

the watch list of yesterday didn’t activated (NASR didn’t take the entry and Gap in NEDA)

many of the shorts in the prior watch list worked well and many stocks signaled short today too like ABRD, ASCM, AUTO, ECAP

also there are some interesting stocks too  you can watch them tomorrow:AMOC, COMI, HRHO, IEEC.OTC

if any of them take the high of today without gaps then it’s ok to buy in them with tight stop

Active Orders list still has AITG who yield 40% until now without rectracement  

Weekly Wrap

Last thursday News (Bad too)

• Talaat Mustafa Group Profits dips 29%, Reuters
• EFG Hermes Holding Q2 Profits dips 57%, Reuters
• Lecico Egypt Q2 Profits dips 20%, Reuters
• CIB & Actis Deal
• The Suez Canal Monthly Revenues dips 22%, BusinessNews
• National Security of Israel declares Warning to Israelis against traveling to Egypt, Kenya and Morocco
• Egypt CIB Bank Q2 Profit slides 17%, Reuters
• Egypt Mobile Subscribers reach 48.5 Million, WirelessFederaton

no interesting opportunities in the charts for the next week but you can look at ABRD, HRHO, IEEC, SKPC

in Thursday the gaps ruin most of the pending orders (as you know if you follow this blog from while, we neglect the breakout in the Gap case

and the rest of the positions initiated with 0.5% risk, they’re:AITG, ASCM, CPCI, DAPH, ENGC, GGCC and they will settle in Sunday and also liquidate if there will be any surprises in the market the next week

and the old positions we still have are in: CEFM, ECAP, GLAS, OSTD and NCCW liquidated as trailing SL hit with small loss

ECAP, GLAS AND OSTD today

today 3 positions initiated from yesterday pending orders in ECAP.CA, GLAS.CA and OSTD.CA and one liquidation in ALCN.CA at breakeven with costs

the market was interesting today, and may be there will be small run before all those bad news hit it hard …

today bad news were:

• Egyptian Financial and Industrial (EFIC.CA) 1H09 results dips 78%
• Credit Agricole Egypt Bank (CIEB.CA) 1H09 results dips 13%
• Ascom Mining (ASCM.CA) 1H09 results dips 35%
• BNP PARIBAS Egypt Bank (BCNP.CA) 1H09 results dips 31%
• POLVARA Cotton (APSW.CA) doubles it’s prior losses in 1H09 results
• National Navigation (NANA.CA) record in 1H09 $34M losses/$47M Profit in 1H08

and tomorrow watch stocks list:(click to enlarge)

select what you see and tight your stops

Stocks to Watch: for 12-16 July 09 (Week 28/2009)

I’m still Flat in this market and those are some stocks to watch for breakout in the next week

and nothing clear in other UAE markets, I’m eager to trade in them again after all this time

Indices Rebalance

EFG Hermes announced rebalance for it’s indices

the main index HFI (Hermes Financial Index) will contain 49 stocks now
one stock will be removed and 3 new will be added

the removed stock is:

• SCEM.CA (Sinai Cement)

The new added are:

• ASCM.CA (Ascom Minning)
• UEGC.CA (Upper Egypt Contracting)
• KABO.CA (Kabo Clothes)

Egyptian Exchange Wrap

 

The Top Volume this week and the Worst Performers are very interesting

Stock Last % change % Vol SAUD.CA 6.10   2.01%   529% ELKA.CA 5.24   0.77%   505% ECAP.CA 5.62   11.95%   419% IFAP.CA 14.53   6.84%   365% SPIN.CA 1.80   18.42%   325% ASCM.CA 38.00   38.13%   322% RAYA.CA 5.21   11.09%   288% MICH.CA 9.16   12.53%   258% ZEOT.CA 1.79   -0.56%   242% ECMI.CA 79.08   67.01%   229% UEGC.CA 2.74   21.78%   219% ESRS.CA 11.89   7.31%   207% ABRD.CA 9.60   18.23%   206% KABO.CA 1.49   1.36%   157% IRON.CA 16.90   26.50%   156%

Stock % CHG ECMI.CA 67.01% NCEM.CA 45.33% PRCL.CA 42.26% ASCM.CA 38.13% MOSC.CA 31.10%

Stock % CHG NIRE.CA 30.35% HRHO.CA 16.84% KZPC.CA 16.67% ORTE.CA 15.93% AFDI.CA 15.35%

 

will look at the rest in weekend

Egyptian Exchange New LLs, Week 14-18 SEP 08

Stocks closed at All Time Low:: AIVC$.CA, AREH.CA, AREHA.CA, DEVE.CA, MOIL$.CA, NAHO$.CA, RAYA.CA, RUBX.CA, TOUR.CA, PHDC.CA, ODHN.CA

Stocks closed at 1 Year Low:: CCRS.CA, COMI.CA, FAITA.CA, RTVC.CA, ASCM.CA, RAKT.CA, SIMO.CA, KZPC.CA, MICH.CA, GGCC.CA, HRHO.CA, SEIG.CA, COSG.CA, PHAR.CA, NASR.CA, SWDY.CA, UASG.CA, APSW.CA, NMPH.CA, AREI.CA, DAPH.CA, GIHD.CA, HELI.CA, MNHD.CA, UNIT.CA, ETEL.CA, ORHD.CA, PHTV.CA, MFSC.CA, ICID.CA

Stocks closed at 2 Years Low:: FAIT.CA, SAUD.CA, WATA.CA, ESRS.CA, IRON.CA, DCRC.CA, ECAP.CA, PACH.CA, DEIN.CA, HDBK.CA, MOSC.CA, SUGR.CA, ZEOT.CA, BIOC.CA, PHPC.CA, EAST.CA, SPIN.CA, ELSH.CA, OCDI.CA, EGTS.CA, SDTI.CA, MPRC.CA

Stocks closed at 3 Years Low:: NSGB.CA, MBSC.CA, OLGR.CA, ORTE.CA

Stocks closed at 4 Years Low:: EMOB.CA, LCSW.CA, SUCE.CA

Stocks closed at 5 Years Low:: ORWE.CA

EFG Hermes & Audi Merger in 6 Weeks ?!

Hassan Heikal, a joint chief executive officer, said the talks, which have continued since at least March, could go either way – to a merger or to a decision by EFG to sell off its 23 percent stake in the Lebanese bank.

At Bank Audi’s market price of $90 a share, the stake has a value of about $680 million, according to data of newswire Reuters.

“Because of the complexity of the transaction in the sense of the different regulatory environments, it’s taking longer than expected for us to make an announcement,” Heikal told a conference call on his bank’s first-half results.
“But hopefully this chapter will come to an end in the next four to six weeks, either way, whether positively or negatively,” he added.
Heikal said the stated policy of EFG-Hermes remained to integrate the two banks into a common platform.
But he added: “We are not in the business obviously of merging or buying a commercial bank at three, four or five times book [value] and 20 times earnings… We would be sellers at these valuations.”
If the two sides cannot agree on the terms of a merger, EFG-Hermes will then face a choice of retaining its stake in Bank Audi or selling it off, he said.
EFG-Hermes bought its stake at $70 and could expect to sell at above the current market price, he said.
“So I think if the deal were not to happen, we would be faced with one or two alternatives, either we divest from Bank Audi and effectively give the cash to the shareholders, and make an IRR [internal rate of return] of 30 or 35 percent,” he added.

“Or we maintain it for another day where maybe the integration of the two organizations becomes more achievable.”
Asked about their purchase of a stake in a Kuwait brokerage, EFG-Hermes executives said they did not intend to increase the stake because the bank had already paid a high premium for access to the highly restricted Kuwait brokerage market.
Kuwait Invest Holding Co said on Monday it sold a 50 percent stake in a brokerage unit to EFG-Hermes for 33.4 million dinars ($124.4 million). The unit, Offset Holding KSC, owns 90 percent of Gulf Financial Brokerage Company.
Heikal said the brokerage in Kuwait, the second largest stock market in the Arab world, would contribute significantly to EFG-Hermes’ consolidated revenues.
“Our share of the six-month earnings is about $11 million. Annualize that, then you should look at more or less 50 pct of that,” he added. “We are hoping this is a platform for ultimately a greater presence in Kuwait.” (Writing by Jonathan Wright, editing by Will Waterman), ……………… Arabian Business

ASEC Mining and new cement Project

Egyptian company ASEC Mining (Ascom) ASCM.CA said on Monday it was taking a 20 percent stake in a new company that will produce cement in Ethiopia.

In a statement released through the Egyptian stock exchange, it said the Ethiopian venture, in conjunction with ASEC Cement, would be the company’s first investment in cement production.

It said the unnamed Ethiopian company would have a capital of $100,000 and would build and run cement plants, own limestone quarries, and export clinker and other products. (Writing by Jonathan Wright; editing by Sue Thomas), ……… Reuters

WL Update: Cairo, 26 June08

The Active List:

Stock	Last	Signal	LL
ABUK.CA	$ 266.26	$ 278.00	$ 258.00

ABRD.CA

$ 119.69

$ 126.65

$ 110.00

ECMI.CA

$ 110.00

$ 120.00

$ 100.00

GMCI.CA

$ 84.75

$ 89.00

$ 80.00

watch the food sector after the useless rate rise and the Mills, rounding between them and the Poultry Stocks

care with the following and don’t rush WE ARE OFFICIALY IN DOWN TREND until any new events, wait for reversals or determine a reasonable targets

The Pending List: Updated

Stock

Last

Signal @

LL

ASCM.CA

$ 210.27

$ 226.89

$ 206.00

AFMC.CA	$ 34.03	$ 43.00	$ 34.00
CEFM.CA	$ 29.88	$ 36.00	$ 26.51

EDFM.CA	$ 38.50	$ 48.90	$ 38.00
EFIC.CA	$ 350.00	$ 359.00	$ 340.00

GSSC.CA	$ 54.38	$ 64.25	$ 52.00
MILS.CA	$ 52.01	$ 64.00	$ 48.00
NEDA.CA	$ 35.90	$ 38.70	$ 33.10
NMPH.CA	$ 44.80	$ 58.79	$ 44.00
PRCL.CA	$ 203.00	$ 222.80	$ 202.00
SCFM.CA	$ 158.88	$ 174.00	$ 125.00
UEFM.CA	$ 114.80	$ 125.50	$ 101.00
UEGC.CA	$ 4.46	$ 5.28	$ 4.33
WCDF.CA	$ 51.05	$ 62.90	$ 48.24

EHDR.CA	$ 14.05	$ 17.65	$ 14.00
ESRS.CA	$ 82.16	$ 87.98	$ 80.00
ETRS.CA	$ 32.10	$ 39.99	$ 31.75
IRON.CA	$ 47.00	$ 53.89	$ 44.00
MENA.CA	$ 23.95	$ 27.45	$ 23.50
NCGC.CA	$ 33.39	$ 39.70	$ 31.50
PPIS.CA	$ 53.00	$ 66.45	$ 53.00
RREI.CA	$ 12.48	$ 15.98	$ 11.11
RUBX.CA	$ 15.20	$ 19.17	$ 14.31
SKPC.CA	$ 20.61	$ 21.60	$ 20.41
SMFR.CA	$ 31.22	$ 35.30	$ 30.02
SVCE.CA	$ 32.35	$ 35.00	$ 30.41
SWDY.CA	$ 137.01	$ 141.88	$ 126.00

The Pending List contains the updated un-triggered stocks from the old list, with the updated lower W entries

End Of Week Notes 2-6/June08

Egypt Boursah

mixed view this week, and the same astute bidders still around, the view still bearish and may be closing by the main CASE index above 11125 change this view and monitor the end of the major correction and sell off

cautions by the EFG firm on the point 11350 point as a test of the broken up trend line

until those scenarios, the view still bearish

the volume leaders this week:

ALUM.CA	132.30		-11.80%		719%		DEAL
NHPS.CA	44.00		33.29%		378%
NCCW.CA	68.93		49.75%		217%
IDEA.CA	46.99		-24.23%		190%
MPCO.CA	35.03		-1.30%		176%
AALR.CA	81.00		-4.63%		173%
CCRS.CA	31.49		3.14%		157%
TMGH.CA	10.46		-2.24%		155%
IRON.CA	62.89		-1.73%		155%
PHTV.CA	43.50		12.40%		152%
PPIS.CA	60.00		95.00%		148%		WOHO
NASR.CA	23.60		16.20%		147%
POUL.CA	61.00		-8.81%		143%
GLAS.CA	39.94		22.55%		142%
RUBX.CA	16.22		8.13%		131%
CIRA.CA	48.10		6.25%		130%
GIHD.CA	53.39		26.52%		121%
$NAHO.CA	2.20		0.92%		116%		DEAL
MCQE.CA	70.20		-3.17%		114%
MILS.CA	75.00		-0.90%		95%
SNFC.CA	49.40		23.56%		95%
ETRS.CA	38.64		-13.65%		92%
ORWE.CA	63.99		-3.05%		88%
ESGI.CA	58.50		4.37%		85%
ASCM.CA	231.00		2.21%		80%		GOOOD
ECMI.CA	120.00		13.20%		79%		GOOOD
TOUR.CA	35.40		5.04%		75%
MNHD.CA	66.69		8.09%		66%		GOOOD
MOSC.CA	37.01		11.75%		60%
DCRC.CA	25.62		-4.76%		59%		WATCH
AFDI.CA	80.40		-4.29%		58%
ABRD.CA	122.00		-7.61%		51%

it may seems the absence of the blue chips in those lists but they are astute as it appears in the rebounds in those stocks

the Top and the worst performers this week in price change

PPIS.CA 95.44% 148% RREI.CA 89.47% 13% NCCW.CA 49.75% 217% IEEC.CA 38.77% 36% EREC.CA 37.49% 44% NHPS.CA 33.29% 378% WACE.CA 31.80% 0% GIHD.CA 26.50% 121% NEDA.CA 26.30% -10% SNFC.CA 23.60% 95%

IDEA.CA -24.20% 190% SBAG.CA -16.50% 30% ORHC.CA -15.80% 77% ETRS.CA -13.70% 92% SIMO.CA -13.30% 13% GMCI.CA -12.90% -51% ALUM.CA -11.80% 719% NIRE.CA -10.90% -77% ROTO.CA -9.80% -58% PRCL.CA -9.20% -51%

Stocks closes at All Time High

Stock	% CHG	VOL
ELKA.CA	5.22%	113%
EPCO.CA	16.48%	30%
NCCW.CA	30.06%	198%
PPIS.CA	20.72%	-13%
WACE.CA	31.82%	124%

will see watches again and if any appears it will be added to OCDI.CA, the best portfolio performers are ASCM.CA, MNHD.CA, ECMI.CA, the worst are EFIC.CA, EGAS.CA, DAPH.CA, the only Over liquidation this week was GMCI.CA

It was a quite week