I’m Flat The Market

today I liquidated the last three swing positions, there were SODIC (OCDI) and Egyptian Tourism (EGTS)

this was the last and the 14th position closed this week

there is no breakouts from the watchlist

The market seems weak today and the previous two sessions and didnt even touched the 6,400 mark!

watch for buying around 6,040 otherwise it’s wise to wait

The Week Wrap 23/09, Golden Cross

new high printed this week and the market broke 6,000 closed around 6240

do you remember the famous 6400, watch it closely if we continue upward the next week

golden cross on the daily chart the 50MA crossed the 200MA, this is good as you know even if we will see some retracement

also the Gulf Markets did well this week, the best performer was DFM (Dubai), the real estates recovers much of their losses, energy stocks in Abu Dhabi

Pending Orders for the next week

reduce your risk and take care …

The Weekly Wrap-up

you know what the market did already, another failure to hold and closing under 5,700

this point (5,700) deduced it’s power for three weeks until now

this 3 weeks congestion could be distribution sign as the bad history for congestions tell, so take care

see the EGX30 Index Chart

for the portfolio we didn’t liquidate any position this week and still hold 5 positions in 3 stocks

• the old one in GB Auto (AUTO) plus new addition to it 66940@18, 35050@20.25 respectively
• two positions in Maridive (MOIL) 78800@3.60, 78400@3.65 those two different pyramids
• one position in SODIC (OCDI) 20800@58.50

you can track how those positions created through the pending lists and commentary posts

new watchlist will be posted today for the next week watch in market continuation case

Maridive & SODIC Today

today 3 orders triggered, 2 in Maridive (MOIL) and one in SODIC (OCDI)

each of the Maridive positions are in separate pyramid @ $3.60 and @ $3.65 respectively

and SODIC triggered @ EGP 58.50

trial you SL and protect the profits and take care, the view isn’t clear until now

refer to the pending orders list posted earlier

Pending …

some pending orders for the weekly tracking of the Egyptian Market, if the market change it’s mind and continue the current small run, I see strange decoupling in  spot currencies Market (Forex) which gives me the way many time early than the equities

be careful and reduce you risk per trade

 

click to enlarge

EGX30, The Week Commentary

after the release of huge number of earnings reports in this week, the worst is over so let’s see the development of our notes in the old post

• after the taking off the brach zone of the monthly up trend (from 407 to 12,039) and the boundaries of this brach zone are (4,480-2,890) the market run 24.8% but failed to strong closing for this week (the 20th week in 09) and we closed only at 16% above the boundary of the brach zone
• Monthly 50MA @ 6,940 and 20MA @ 6,485
• current monthly bar is the third Higher high after 9 Lower lows
• the key levels we talk about in the previous commentary post are still far away from them, the first one is 6,680 (to remember those key levels, they’re 38.2%=6680, 50%=7700, 61.8%=8700, 78.6%=10180)
• I know it’s silly now to talk about the far reverse brach zone but we just point to it regularly until we see the market there so:
• the reverse brach zone boundaries are far away but it’s worth to watch their development and they’re the last fib levels: 8,730-10,180

• On the weekly Chart we breached the pivots we talked about in the same post and they were 5,500 and 5,890 and closed above the first one
• the current weekly bar is the 10th consecutive HH and if you know about Demark then you can feel good about the last sessions cuz it’s normal according to his rules
• 5,700 the important level (we talk about in April Commentary too) shows itself in the last session and the market closes under it, see the weekly chart
• the weekly close is in the lower half of the whole week range (H:6042, L:5507, C:5628), its bad sign for the next week at least
• The market also reversed at aprox. the 50MA of the weekly also it’s round number, also 50% fib of the main up trend
• the current spreads for the weekly are: 20MA=30%, 50MA=-7%, 200MA=-21%

• the current spreads for the daily are:20MA=7%, 50MA=22%, 200MA=3.5%
• we cant see any important level on the way down unless 4,800 for many reasons, the simplest of them is it’s the previous breached pivot and the rest are it’s the same as those spreads point
• 4,800 at the same level as the weekly 200MA –30% spread, weekly 50MA –20% spread, weekly 20MA 0% spread, Daily 200MA –10% spread, Daily 50MA 0%, Daily 20MA –10% spread, see the spread charts
• so 4,800 is important level

• for the index long positions if you didn’t liquidate them at the round 6,000 then you’ve another chance to protect the profits under the low of the last weekly bar @ 5,500, for the two active pyramids (the first one have 11 positions and its SL triggered at 5,780 and the second pyramid had 7 positions with the same SL), after liquidation you can build new after the end of this plunge

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

May & EGX Monthly Average Return

we cant expect what will happen in this month until now the Egyptian market up by 8.3%, so How it will end the month

we haven’t good history for May and it’s average return over the period 93-08 is aprox –2%

is it’s true the quote: Sell in May and Go Away or not, we will see

Alco, Maridive & Sheeni for today

Today 4 orders triggered from the pending orders list

as in the list we were monitoring those the performance of those stocks on some levels

Alco (RREI) has run today and hungry orders that cause impulsive breakout on both levels 2.9, 3.45

we catch both of them 300K shares @ 2.9 and 15.5K @ 3.4 another order waiting @ 3.9, the current SL 2.9

always take care with any trade in the OTC market

Maridive too (MOIL) did great job today but we must take care in this cuz one of the main holders (EFG Hermes) are getting out of it

we are in it @ 3.1 with 88.3K shares and current SL @ 2.8

Sheeni (PRCL) did what we waiting for the past two sessions, the breakout of 9.35 was great today

we catch it with 78.6K shares, other additions pending @ 11.25, 13.15 respectively

you can see others are doing great from the list but I didn’t have any interest in them like: IRON, EGAL, OCIC