Middle East Stocks Weekly Wrap-up

the main market index EGX30 print 1.1% in Thursday, the last session in the second week of Ramadan month, I hate those short sessions, you can decide or trust them

after the sell off from 6790 we can see this session as upward correction and we cant talk about uptrend continuation before good signal

so three senarios here: congestion, upward by taking the peak, downward by taking 6500

 

    

EGX30 daily/weekly charts, click on them to enlarge

if you’re a fibo believer (I’m not) then you need to note that the market resting on the 38 ratio from the big down leg

our stock basket this week has 39 decliners, 3 unchanged, 19 advancers

and the sector performance table sorted by the weekly change and off course the healthcare sector on the top as usual in the indecision times

other middle east exchanges still the worst performers in the region specially Saudi’s TADAWUL

I’m frustrated from them and begin to miss the value of their daily tracking and scanning!!

It has been long when we saw the last opportunity their…

EGX30, The Week Commentary

after the release of huge number of earnings reports in this week, the worst is over so let’s see the development of our notes in the old post

• after the taking off the brach zone of the monthly up trend (from 407 to 12,039) and the boundaries of this brach zone are (4,480-2,890) the market run 24.8% but failed to strong closing for this week (the 20th week in 09) and we closed only at 16% above the boundary of the brach zone
• Monthly 50MA @ 6,940 and 20MA @ 6,485
• current monthly bar is the third Higher high after 9 Lower lows
• the key levels we talk about in the previous commentary post are still far away from them, the first one is 6,680 (to remember those key levels, they’re 38.2%=6680, 50%=7700, 61.8%=8700, 78.6%=10180)
• I know it’s silly now to talk about the far reverse brach zone but we just point to it regularly until we see the market there so:
• the reverse brach zone boundaries are far away but it’s worth to watch their development and they’re the last fib levels: 8,730-10,180

• On the weekly Chart we breached the pivots we talked about in the same post and they were 5,500 and 5,890 and closed above the first one
• the current weekly bar is the 10th consecutive HH and if you know about Demark then you can feel good about the last sessions cuz it’s normal according to his rules
• 5,700 the important level (we talk about in April Commentary too) shows itself in the last session and the market closes under it, see the weekly chart
• the weekly close is in the lower half of the whole week range (H:6042, L:5507, C:5628), its bad sign for the next week at least
• The market also reversed at aprox. the 50MA of the weekly also it’s round number, also 50% fib of the main up trend
• the current spreads for the weekly are: 20MA=30%, 50MA=-7%, 200MA=-21%

• the current spreads for the daily are:20MA=7%, 50MA=22%, 200MA=3.5%
• we cant see any important level on the way down unless 4,800 for many reasons, the simplest of them is it’s the previous breached pivot and the rest are it’s the same as those spreads point
• 4,800 at the same level as the weekly 200MA –30% spread, weekly 50MA –20% spread, weekly 20MA 0% spread, Daily 200MA –10% spread, Daily 50MA 0%, Daily 20MA –10% spread, see the spread charts
• so 4,800 is important level

• for the index long positions if you didn’t liquidate them at the round 6,000 then you’ve another chance to protect the profits under the low of the last weekly bar @ 5,500, for the two active pyramids (the first one have 11 positions and its SL triggered at 5,780 and the second pyramid had 7 positions with the same SL), after liquidation you can build new after the end of this plunge

April 09 Wrap-up

The market has 22% run this month with 30 Billions total Volume

Commentaries Update:

• EGX30 Monthly take off the brach zone of the fib from 407 to 12,039
• EGX Monthly brach zone boundaries are 4840-2890, Market closed on 30 April 09 @ 5191
• 20MA @ 6444, 50MA @ 6930
• April bar made new high (the second high after 9 consecutive LLs)
• if we assumed this is a beginning of complete correction we can draw a reverse fib from the high @ 12039 until the market low 3380, we can see some key levels to watch and reverse brach zone
• The key level for this correction are: 38.2%=6680, 50%=7700, 61.8%=8700, 78.6%=10180
• The reverse brach zone boundaries are far away but it’s worth watching their development and they are the last fib levels:8730-10180
• huge hidden divergence on the weekly MACD (useless until confirmation)

 

• this current weekly bar completly over the last R (pivot) @ 4790
• other pivot in the market way are: 5500, 5890
• 50MA @ 6277, 200MA @ 7122, watch those boundaries
• The current weekly bar is the 9 consecutive HH
• the current 20MA spread is 23%, 50MA spread @ –17%, 200MA spread –27%
• the planned 200MA spread –20% @  5700 wich equals the 50MA spread at –10% and 20MA spread @ 20% (interesting)
• 5700 seems important level

the Egyptian Bear markets comparison chart show below we currently –56% from the peak @ 12,039 (some false calculation ruins the prior posted chart)

we also recovered 53.5% from the market low

if we pyramiding a position in the index from the begining of this correction the we must have 4 positions now, all of them in profit

• 1st @ 3,617 =  + 1574 points
• 2nd @ 4,072 = + 1119 points
• 3rd @ 4,527 =  + 664 points
• 4th @ 4,982 = + 209 points

with Stop Loss for all of them @ 4,527, with 455 range we can attach the next pending as the following

• 5th @ 5,437

some charts included

EGX (Egyptian Exchange) Bear Markets Comparison Update

I don’t know how to handle my blog

I luv it and always treat it as my lovely diary but what I can do, I haven’t the time to post regularly

so what I can do ?!, also the trading journal, I cant handle it and post my trades, I track the charts every EOD and go to the bed with tea and coffee hangover

 

What I can do except trying, we must try to the last breath …

here the update to the Bear Market chart in this post posted (22 November 08), I know it supposed to update it every week or at least every month with the new market moves, but I’m still try here

Picasa Content

the updated chart, we still in the bear market and go further and now we are far away from the market top –70%

Egypt Financial Bear Markets Comparison

I saw great post and chart in dshort blog which compares the bear markets of the S&P and think to build similar chart but for the Egyptian exchange main index (CASE30) and see what we get:

our current bear market is the largest one from the four

we losed 68% since we topped at 12,039 in April 08 and still no sign for bottoming yet

also the chart shows that the current bear market is the fastest one from the four

the next in the worst list is 2000-2002 bear which record -65%

I will update the chart every week and as I’ve free time

Weekly WrapUp of the Egyptian Exchange

the main Market Index CASE30 and the sector indices performance

sorted by one week change

that’s it …

the market tumbled 19.6% and the worst sector for sure is the construction by Orascom Hands after it’s bad earnings release which take stock price down -34% in this week (OCIC.CA 114, -34%)

the worst Stocks this week were the blue chips without any exception, this list contain Orascom, SODIC, EFG Hermes, Orascom Telecom and others , some of them are listed below

also some of the stocks that witnessed drop in price with strong volume (accumulation signs)

 

Stock Last % change   % Vol ESRS.CA 9.64   -18.92%   648% ABRD.CA 7.65   -20.31%   190% PACH.CA 28.32   -9.90%   177% ASCM.CA 26.65   -29.87%   170% SUCE.CA 20.40   -13.19%   153% HRHO.CA 13.56   -31.17%   141% IFAP.CA 11.24   -22.64%   114% OCIC.CA 114.00   -34.00%   113% ELKA.CA 4.50   -14.12%   108%

Stock % CHG FOAM.CA -46.00% OCDI.CA -37.71% OCIC.CA -34.00% GSSC.CA -32.09% HRHO.CA -31.17% ORTE.CA -30.41% $MOIL.CA -30.36% ASCM.CA -29.87% COSG.CA -29.87% RAKT.CA -29.54% ECMI.CA -28.87%

Egyptian Exchange and Pattern Failure, Still with Bears

In the last post we notice the first reversal pattern on the weekly chart of the CASE 30 index and set it triggering and failure points

and as the weekly close 3878 so the trend failed and the market said it loudly, it’s still strong Bear Market

The new updated Chart

Egyptian CASE30 index & Possible Reversal Pattern

 

a possible reversal pattern here (without the last candle, it’s the current week candle)

the trigger points for this pattern is the prior week high: 5388 and 5512, and the failure point is: 4469 which also can be the stop loss, by triggering it the current trend continues and if there is a target for this pattern you can say 6400, 7100, 7400

lets see how this develops …..

 

 

Egyptian Exchange SUN Volumes Wrapup

Stocks Up in Price and Volume

NCCW.CA     17.88%     377%

SUCE.CA      3.19%      217%

GGCC.CA     2.82%       238%

PACH.CA      0.54%      542%

Egyptian Exchange Wrap

 

The Top Volume this week and the Worst Performers are very interesting

Stock Last % change % Vol SAUD.CA 6.10   2.01%   529% ELKA.CA 5.24   0.77%   505% ECAP.CA 5.62   11.95%   419% IFAP.CA 14.53   6.84%   365% SPIN.CA 1.80   18.42%   325% ASCM.CA 38.00   38.13%   322% RAYA.CA 5.21   11.09%   288% MICH.CA 9.16   12.53%   258% ZEOT.CA 1.79   -0.56%   242% ECMI.CA 79.08   67.01%   229% UEGC.CA 2.74   21.78%   219% ESRS.CA 11.89   7.31%   207% ABRD.CA 9.60   18.23%   206% KABO.CA 1.49   1.36%   157% IRON.CA 16.90   26.50%   156%

Stock % CHG ECMI.CA 67.01% NCEM.CA 45.33% PRCL.CA 42.26% ASCM.CA 38.13% MOSC.CA 31.10%

Stock % CHG NIRE.CA 30.35% HRHO.CA 16.84% KZPC.CA 16.67% ORTE.CA 15.93% AFDI.CA 15.35%

 

will look at the rest in weekend