1st Ramadan Wrap (SUN 23 Aug 09)

3 stocks initiated today ALCN, NASR, SUGR and one liquidation AITG @AV 18.5 and COMI neglected for it gap opening

I hate those short sessions of Ramadan but what we can do, the market open 10:30AM and close 1:30PM

so WTF we can do with 3 hours except bad manipulation

I collected only some of the planned positions in ALCN 103 and the reason is the short sessions

ALCN and NASR were two of the best performers today, it seems we will celebrate the Eid early this year

let’s see how this develop cuz I still see the market weak cuz the divergence between the market and it’s blue chips so trail your stops using the ATR as you can

there is no watch list today

stocks to watch

the market rebound in Thursday and now we’re facing one of two options a congestion or upward continuation

also downward move can occur too if the congestion low taken ..

five stocks to watch in Sunday:

we still hold AITG only and will liquidate on any sign of weakness

Happy Ramadan …

EGX30 Sell Signal 19 August 09

The main index did it today and shows sell after the taken of the pivot 6232 and closing under it (-1.7%)

breakout of today’s low 6187 confirm this and breakout of its high tells that there is either false sell or coming congestion …

the watch list of yesterday didn’t activated (NASR didn’t take the entry and Gap in NEDA)

many of the shorts in the prior watch list worked well and many stocks signaled short today too like ABRD, ASCM, AUTO, ECAP

also there are some interesting stocks too  you can watch them tomorrow:AMOC, COMI, HRHO, IEEC.OTC

if any of them take the high of today without gaps then it’s ok to buy in them with tight stop

Active Orders list still has AITG who yield 40% until now without rectracement  

Weekly Wrap

Last thursday News (Bad too)

• Talaat Mustafa Group Profits dips 29%, Reuters
• EFG Hermes Holding Q2 Profits dips 57%, Reuters
• Lecico Egypt Q2 Profits dips 20%, Reuters
• CIB & Actis Deal
• The Suez Canal Monthly Revenues dips 22%, BusinessNews
• National Security of Israel declares Warning to Israelis against traveling to Egypt, Kenya and Morocco
• Egypt CIB Bank Q2 Profit slides 17%, Reuters
• Egypt Mobile Subscribers reach 48.5 Million, WirelessFederaton

no interesting opportunities in the charts for the next week but you can look at ABRD, HRHO, IEEC, SKPC

in Thursday the gaps ruin most of the pending orders (as you know if you follow this blog from while, we neglect the breakout in the Gap case

and the rest of the positions initiated with 0.5% risk, they’re:AITG, ASCM, CPCI, DAPH, ENGC, GGCC and they will settle in Sunday and also liquidate if there will be any surprises in the market the next week

and the old positions we still have are in: CEFM, ECAP, GLAS, OSTD and NCCW liquidated as trailing SL hit with small loss

Egyptian Exchange (EGX) Weekly Wrap (Week 32/2009)

 

I’m back from the short vacation with another confirmation on the importance of freeing your mind and vacations from time to time …

the market main news are:

• the launch of EGX100 index Here 
• The rate cut by the Egyptian central bank Here
• the slump of Q2 GB Auto Profit 72% Here

so the market index print 5.76% without following by many stocks !!

small number of them made 20 days high this week like: ACRO, AFDI, AFMC, AITG, BIOC, BISM, COMI, DARY, EAST, EGTS, ELNA, ENGC, LCSW, MBSC, NCEM, OSTD, SCEM, SNFI, SVCE, TORA, WACE

as you see the most of them are the cement companies with their new prices of the product and the rest are the illiquid seasonal stocks except COMI, EGTS, ELNA!

the market also now away 93% from the bottom in February 09

the update for the bear markets comparison is here

also the wraps of the other middle east stocks

Stocks to Watch: for 12-16 July 09 (Week 28/2009)

I’m still Flat in this market and those are some stocks to watch for breakout in the next week

and nothing clear in other UAE markets, I’m eager to trade in them again after all this time

London/Egypt GDRs last Quotes/Charts

CIB Egypt Bank CBKD/COMI
EFG Hermes EFGD/HRHO
Orascom Const ORSD/OCIC
Orascom Telecom OTLD/ORTE

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

London/Egypt GDRs Latest Weekly Charts

 

CIB Bank CBKD.IL/COMI.CA 4.6% / 0.8%
EFG Hermes EFGD.IL/HRHO.CA 18.5% / 21.8%
Orascom Telecom OTLD.IL/ORTE.CA 6.8% / 13.4%
Orascom Const. ORSD.IL/OCIC.CA -0.6% / 4.4%

Stocks to Watch: SUN 22 MAR09

Short term Watch list and other MT posted to the journal …

We already involved in five of them: SWDY, AUTO, AICR, ECAP, EGAS

some new and most of them from the market blue chips, see the journal for details

COMI, OLGR, AMOC, DAPH, HRHO, ETRS