ECAP, GLAS AND OSTD today

today 3 positions initiated from yesterday pending orders in ECAP.CA, GLAS.CA and OSTD.CA and one liquidation in ALCN.CA at breakeven with costs

the market was interesting today, and may be there will be small run before all those bad news hit it hard …

today bad news were:

• Egyptian Financial and Industrial (EFIC.CA) 1H09 results dips 78%
• Credit Agricole Egypt Bank (CIEB.CA) 1H09 results dips 13%
• Ascom Mining (ASCM.CA) 1H09 results dips 35%
• BNP PARIBAS Egypt Bank (BCNP.CA) 1H09 results dips 31%
• POLVARA Cotton (APSW.CA) doubles it’s prior losses in 1H09 results
• National Navigation (NANA.CA) record in 1H09 $34M losses/$47M Profit in 1H08

and tomorrow watch stocks list:(click to enlarge)

select what you see and tight your stops

Stocks To Watch (Week 33/2009)

here are some stocks to watch, be careful, I’m still uncomfortable about the market behavior cuz the reasons in the prior post

so be wise and selectable

click to enlarge the sheet

Stocks to Watch: for 12-16 July 09 (Week 28/2009)

I’m still Flat in this market and those are some stocks to watch for breakout in the next week

and nothing clear in other UAE markets, I’m eager to trade in them again after all this time

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

Stocks to Watch for the next week (16-19 MARCH 09)

for short term opportunities in the next week, I choose those from the pending orders list,

you can see the whole list in the journal Here …

• Chemicals: EFIC.CA, SKPC.CA
• Constructions: DCRC.CA, ECAP.CA, UEGC.CA
• Financials: ABRD.CA
• Industrial: AUTO.CA, ELEC.CA, SWDY.CA
• Tech: RAYA.CA
• Telecom: ORTE.CA
• Travel: EGTS.CA, RTVC.CA
• OTC: AICR.CA, RREI.CA

The points for entry and R:R comparison with the pending orders list in the journal

I’m hungry for working in the egyptian market again after this long suspension and business trips

the last position liquidated in 3 Feb 09 and it was in SUGR (Delta Sugar), SL Triggered

lets hope great week …

Egyptian Exchange Weekly, September 08 Wrap

 

The week has two days only cuz the holidays which will continue until the next Tuesday MON 6 October, the market will begin again in Tuesday 7 October 08

so, if we look at the monthly wrap, it was a very bad month, Market Cap lost -15.71%

sectors: The worst Was Telecommunication which contain 3 stocks only and all of them are blue chips, the sector plummet this month cuz the Orascom Telecom ORTE.CA bad fundamentals and management, and bad earnings results

the next in the worst list is the Basic Resources which also consist of some of the market blue chips like Al Ezz Steel ESRS.CA

and so on

the best sector (LOL) was the chemicals which dropped only -5.76%

Notes:

1. this month is the 5th month that made Lower Low
2. the market now resting in the Brach zone (it’s lower band 6100 and higher band 7400), this area usually serves as bouncing area or a trend continuation and will face a heavy accumulation at it’s boundaries with great congestion
3. on the weekly chart the market resting on the Major 200MA, on the daily chart it’s under it by -30%
4. also another funny point, the market resting under the second MA by aprox. -20% on both daily and weekly
5. The monthly price resting on the Third main MA
6. the price acceleration provide huge divergence on the price

those were some points we noticed with quick review to the weekly data

if those points proved by the price then I will begin the great accumulation in the 40 favored stocks and in the main portfolio

let’s see how it develops?

Egypt & UAE Volumes, MON 22 SEP 08

Green Stocks with Green Volume:

EGX EXPA.CA     248% EGAL.CA     176% EAST.CA     151% EFIC.CA      124% EMOB.CA     123% SWDY.CA    104% EKHO.CA     103% CSAG.CA     67% RREI.OTC    50% GSSC.CA     49% ETRS.CA     47%

ADX ADAVIATION.ADX     492% ADCB.ADX               339% SOROUH.ADX           338% ALDAR.ADX              258% ETISALAT.ADX          247% GCEM.ADX               96% FGB.ADX                  69%

 

Red Stocks with Green Volumes:

EGX AIVC$.CA     80% AFDI.CA       57% OCDI.CA      45%

ADX ARKAN.ADX       368% RAKPROP.ADX   131% ADIB.ADX          114% WAHA.ADX         102% RAKWCT.ADX     94% DANA.ADX         88%

DFM DU.DFM           291% UPP.DFM          224% EMAAR.DFM      184% DIB.DFM           167% DFMC.DFM          124% TABREED.DFM   92% TAMWEEL.DFM   90% GULFNAV.DFM   76%

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 31/8-4/9

very interesting week, tumbled in the first two sessions by the help of Hisham Talaat Mustafa arresting news and it’s stock blowing and rebound in the end sessions and closed +0.3%

many stocks outperformed this week and little number dropped

the worst sectors this week were: Telecoms, Basic Resources and Real estate

the last one has the murdering issue and the first going down by the bad news of Orascom Telecom bad earning release

the best sectors were the Financials +4.51%, Constructions +4.46%, Chemicals +3.92% which contain many of the blue chips of the market like OCIC.CA, HRHO.CA, EFIC.CA

The Volume Leaders and the Top/Worst Performers this week

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
TMGH.CA	6.54		1.08%		370%		Vol: 216M
ACRO.CA	50.40		-3.08%		227%
$NAHO.CA	0.90		1.12%		222%
ABUK.CA	229.95		4.05%		153%
EGAL.CA	44.46		-0.71%		150%
AREI.CA	110.25		4.01%		146%
CSAG.CA	15.50		7.64%		103%
ALCN.CA	142.00		10.95%		97%
HDBK.CA	25.90		8.14%		86%
MBSC.CA	69.61		0.88%		83%
EHDR.CA	7.55		21.77%		69%
EGAS.CA	225.00		33.14%		63%
AFDI.CA	52.60		36.45%		60%
AREHA.CA	20.16		12.63%		41%

Stock % CHG VOL SNFC.CA 52.82% 9% SNFI.CA 47.23% -45% ABRD.CA 45.61% 40% AFDI.CA 36.45% 60% EGAS.CA 33.14% 63% MENA.CA 26.95% -25% AALR.CA 24.90% 4% EHDR.CA 21.77% 69% OLGR.CA 20.00% 39% NCCW.CA 19.91% -14% GIHD.CA 17.35% -23% IDEA.CA 15.08% -23% INFI.CA 14.88% -17% HCFI.CA 14.29% 21% SMPP.CA 13.62% -95%

Stock % CHG VOL SCAR.CA -14.92% -47% ORTE.CA -9.67% 29% CERA.CA -9.65% -66% ORWE.CA -8.89% -37% WACE.CA -7.54% -55% PPIS.CA -7.24% -79% EGBE.CA -7.14% -52% EGSA.CA -5.66% -27% ETEL.CA -5.18% -44% MOIN.CA -4.93% -87% ESRS.CA -4.65% -13% RTVC.CA -4.37% 21% SAUD.CA -4.18% -62% ESGI.CA -4.06% -89% AIVC.CA -4.04% 16%

EFIC.CA (Egyptian Fertilizer) & 3 times profit as 3Q/07

CAIRO, Aug 28 (Reuters) – Egyptian fertilizer company Egyptian Financial and Industrial Co (EFIC) EFIC.CA and one of its subsidiaries made a pretax profit of 218.1 million Egyptian pounds ($40.6 million) in the first seven months of 2008, about three times as much as in the same period of 2007.

The company said in a statement 125.0 million pounds of the profit came from Suez Fertilisers Co, which is 99.88 percent owned by EFIC, compared with 17.0 million.

EFIC itself made 93.1 million pounds, compared with 58.3 million in the same period of 2007. Reuters

and

Saudi Arabia has finally opened its stock market to international investors

Saudi Arabia is currently try to attract more foreign direct investment and have now permitted foreign companies to own 100 percent of property and projects and to bid for government contracts.

Furthermore, since 2005, corporate taxes have decreased from 45 per cent to 25 per cent.

To further attract investors, local authorities have partnered with Naseba, an international business information company, in hosting the Real Estate Investment World Summit in Riyadh on October the 19^th to the 20^th.

The news prompted an immediate rally in the market-which has lost ground so far this year-in apparent anticipation of a surge in foreign interest.

Under the new regulations, foreign buyers can enter into transactions known as swap agreements with local branches of investment banks.

The arrangement lets investors take advantage of movements in Saudi shares even though they are prohibited from owning them outright.

According to a note issued by EFG Hermes, indicated that swap agreements must be fully financed and covered at the time of purchase, and are valid for a maximum four years. Voting rights are retained by the Saudi parties, but they are not permitted to exercise these rights.

No limits have yet been set on the proportion of free-float shares that a foreign investor may own in a company or sector.

Major investment banks say they have begun trading under Saudi’s new rules. theMoveChannel

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 24-28 AUG08, August 08 Wrap

the EGX outperformed this week, and begin a short term uptrend plotted on the daily TF

from the sectors view, there was only the Households sector which has a weak performance and witness a drop by -3.8%

the best performer sectors this week are: the basic resources which run 12.88% and the leaders of this up movement are the steel companies ESRS.CA and IRAX.CA from El Ezz Group

the next was Industrial Sector by it’s pennies and small caps ELEC.CA, GLAS.CA, ENGC.CA, ETRS.CA, SCAR.CA

then the chemicals sector was the third in the ranking by it’s large caps EFIC.CA, SKPC.CA, so the Construction sector by cements and the whole market leader OCIC.CA

the food sector also run at the last two sessions of the week by it’s majors SUGR.CA and the Mills stocks

the market itself closed @ 8375.24 with 4.92% from the last week 7982.74

on a monthly basis: August was a very bad month the market lost -9.47% this month, on a sector basis Travel sector was the worst one this week by -18.66%, the real estate -15.74%, the food sector by -15.22%, then the construction by -13.98%

finally the best performer was ofcourse the defender sector the Healthcare

the market turnover this week was heavy and aprox. 3.87B, many stocks from the best performers are also volume leaders

the volume leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
ACRO.CA	52.00		18.25%		685%		Construction
PACH.CA	47.90		-2.24%		587%		Construction
$EGBE.CA	2.80		15.70%		463%		Banks
CANA.CA	15.51		22.90%		391%		Banks
MCQE.CA	76.50		0.66%		296%		Construction
AJWA.CA	87.75		2.45%		189%		Food
HDBK.CA	23.95		11.55%		167%		Fin services
ENGC.CA	12.01		22.55%		132%		Industrial
ALCN.CA	127.99		12.27%		119%		Industrial
CSAG.CA	14.40		3.75%		111%		Industrial
FAIT.CA	27.00		-3.57%		96%		Banks
MBSC.CA	69.00		-7.26%		88%		Construction
AREI.CA	106.00		-3.65%		64%		Real Estate
ESRS.CA	25.57		20.70%		51%		Basic Resources
NSGB.CA	29.00		7.41%		44%		Banks

The market Worst and Best Performers

Stock % CHG VOL SCAR.CA 44.23% -52% PPIS.CA 35.71% -76% RREI.CA 34.58% -57% $TRTO.CA 26.05% -97% CERA.CA 24.21% -31% CANA.CA 22.90% 391% ENGC.CA 22.55% 132% AMES.CA 21.98% -35% ETRS.CA 21.27% 30% SCFM.CA 20.78% 22% ESRS.CA 20.70% 51% ACRO.CA 18.25% 685% WCDF.CA 18.13% 31% UNIP.CA 16.93% 36% ROTO.CA 16.83% -40%

Stock % CHG VOL WATA.CA -20.87% -54% AFDI.CA -17.93% 8% MFSC.CA -15.49% -7% EPCO.CA -13.57% -23% AIUR.CA -10.68% -40% SIMO.CA -8.65% -74% ORHD.CA -7.77% -98% MBSC.CA -7.26% 88% ICID.CA -6.68% -49% EGAS.CA -6.11% -17% NRPD.CA -4.88% 32% ACGC.CA -3.99% 6% PRCL.CA -3.96% -41% NCGC.CA -3.77% -42% AREI.CA -3.65% 64%