Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap Up

I dont know is this market is easy to beat or it just me, another round with the CASE30 (the Main Market index) and I’m the winner (+1.9%, see the Journal)

the best performing sector this week in price and volumes was the Basic Resources

all the week gone for Ezz Steel ESRS.CA and the last two days for the rest of the sector

the best stock this week is the OTC listed Lakah group HCFI.OTC which hasnt any existing in nature, just the name of the company’s owner and a news about return to pay back the stolen Banks money

+39% but very risky to play, so we left it away

the next best is Pioneers Holding PIOH.CA the investment bank and broker, we already catch it’s breakout with two position, one of them is closed and made the week for us (101K in it only)

some movement in the small deserted sector, Oil & Gas and I think it because the new Oil descovries in the west desert, may be!

this sector has 3 listed stocks only, we catch 2 of them Alex Miners (AMOC.CA), and Maridive (MOIL.CA) and watching them

Olympic group (OLGR.CA) was the heaviest in volume and shares 2.1M (340% above the Volume average) without any noticeable movement, insiders Buying?!

also NAHO.CA (Naeem Holding) and Orascom Telecom (ORTE.CA) shows heavy over-average volumes this week and also considered insiders buying and shares buy back

one of what we missed as a good trade on the weekly and daily was Mobinil (EMOB.CA), outperformed this week +13.3% with 904K!

also I don’t know what EFG Hermes doing and why this weak performance, I’ vent any share in it but just wondering!!

also some of the real estates did it in the last trading session (see HELI.CA, MNHD.CA, why? I don’t know and don’t care about the reason as usual (I’ve a position in both of them) and the view telling that: a story is coming on the weeklies, so be patient

Egypt & UAE Volumes, MON 22 SEP 08

Green Stocks with Green Volume:

EGX EXPA.CA     248% EGAL.CA     176% EAST.CA     151% EFIC.CA      124% EMOB.CA     123% SWDY.CA    104% EKHO.CA     103% CSAG.CA     67% RREI.OTC    50% GSSC.CA     49% ETRS.CA     47%

ADX ADAVIATION.ADX     492% ADCB.ADX               339% SOROUH.ADX           338% ALDAR.ADX              258% ETISALAT.ADX          247% GCEM.ADX               96% FGB.ADX                  69%

 

Red Stocks with Green Volumes:

EGX AIVC$.CA     80% AFDI.CA       57% OCDI.CA      45%

ADX ARKAN.ADX       368% RAKPROP.ADX   131% ADIB.ADX          114% WAHA.ADX         102% RAKWCT.ADX     94% DANA.ADX         88%

DFM DU.DFM           291% UPP.DFM          224% EMAAR.DFM      184% DIB.DFM           167% DFMC.DFM          124% TABREED.DFM   92% TAMWEEL.DFM   90% GULFNAV.DFM   76%

Egyptian Exchange New LLs, Week 14-18 SEP 08

Stocks closed at All Time Low:: AIVC$.CA, AREH.CA, AREHA.CA, DEVE.CA, MOIL$.CA, NAHO$.CA, RAYA.CA, RUBX.CA, TOUR.CA, PHDC.CA, ODHN.CA

Stocks closed at 1 Year Low:: CCRS.CA, COMI.CA, FAITA.CA, RTVC.CA, ASCM.CA, RAKT.CA, SIMO.CA, KZPC.CA, MICH.CA, GGCC.CA, HRHO.CA, SEIG.CA, COSG.CA, PHAR.CA, NASR.CA, SWDY.CA, UASG.CA, APSW.CA, NMPH.CA, AREI.CA, DAPH.CA, GIHD.CA, HELI.CA, MNHD.CA, UNIT.CA, ETEL.CA, ORHD.CA, PHTV.CA, MFSC.CA, ICID.CA

Stocks closed at 2 Years Low:: FAIT.CA, SAUD.CA, WATA.CA, ESRS.CA, IRON.CA, DCRC.CA, ECAP.CA, PACH.CA, DEIN.CA, HDBK.CA, MOSC.CA, SUGR.CA, ZEOT.CA, BIOC.CA, PHPC.CA, EAST.CA, SPIN.CA, ELSH.CA, OCDI.CA, EGTS.CA, SDTI.CA, MPRC.CA

Stocks closed at 3 Years Low:: NSGB.CA, MBSC.CA, OLGR.CA, ORTE.CA

Stocks closed at 4 Years Low:: EMOB.CA, LCSW.CA, SUCE.CA

Stocks closed at 5 Years Low:: ORWE.CA

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 14-18 SEP 08 … II

to look at the volume leaders, the neglected Eastern Tobacco showed undeclared deal in the last session and ranked the first in the weekly turnover sheet

the rest sheet is interesting!

all of them are the market blue chips and we can consider this a good bottoming sign …

as we saw in the prior week wrap the worst performers were also the blue chips which suggested what happened in this week, this can be another great suggestion by this great counts and tools

I hate to say expect or anticipate, cuz I strongly believe in that: there is no expectation in the financial markets, only following or proceeding without any expectations and guesses, this is how I saw earn my living in this business and what made me smile on any view for any newbie and if there is any expectation in this business then it’s expectation of continuation of the current case (current trend) only and nothing more, no reversal expectation or anything like this ..!

The week Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol
EAST.CA	261.00		-13.00%		1270%
EXPA.CA	19.32		-10.80%		252%
EMOB.CA	95.50		-20.42%		139%
ABUK.CA	210.00		-9.53%		136%
CSAG.CA	15.93		-24.18%		132%
EGTS.CA	3.00		-20.00%		110%
COMI.CA	39.53		-10.97%		100%
OCDI.CA	115.00		-8.73%		67%
ORTE.CA	39.98		-11.16%		64%
OLGR.CA	33.83		-26.46%		50%
OCIC.CA	303.21		-13.40%		48%

Top/Worst Performers Table

Top Performers Stock % CHG VOL MEDU.CA 0.50% -12% DARY.CA -2.57% -86% EPPK.CA -2.60% -77% MBSC.CA -2.86% -21% MCQE.CA -3.57% -93% MRCO.CA -4.04% 6% EKHO.CA -4.18% -22% CIEB.CA -4.29% 40% SKPC.CA -6.00% -75% ETEL.CA -6.17% 9% SDTI.CA -6.71% 38% AMRI.CA -7.38% -80% PHAR.CA -7.41% -90% EGSA.CA -7.81% -77% BISM.CA -7.84% -1%

Worst Performers Stock % CHG VOL SNFC.CA -38.22% -39% NCEM.CA -38.17% -100% WATA.CA -35.21% -100% ICID.CA -33.85% -46% AREHA.CA -31.82% -63% IRON.CA -31.74% -30% EGAS.CA -31.44% 8% AREH.CA -30.72% -54% WACE.CA -30.37% -66% AFDI.CA -30.18% -9% IEEC.CA -29.27% -28% AFMC.CA -29.15% -54% UASG.CA -29.08% -55% RREI.CA -28.84% -43% SMPP.CA -28.58% -95%

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap, 7-11 SEP 08

the week of no news, very quit week, the blue chip dropped slowly and the rest run!

the worst sector was the small telecom (-6.87) by the help of Orascom Telecom ORTE.CA and it’s bad news and downgrads and bad fair values, then come the banking sector (-5.12) and it’s bad outlook for the next year, today CIB Egypt (COMI.CA) tumbled -5.3% which drag the whole sector with it

the market itself witness -2.71% this week with bigger than average turnover

the best sector this week was the Food sector (+10.96%) cuz the high food prices in Ramadan and inflation rise

the real estate sector performed well too (+7.09%) and this on the contrary to the UAE real estate sector which collapsed badly this week, in egypt the sector run by Talaat Mustafa Group TMGH.CA and it’s news and the new chairman

The Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
MHOT.CA	130.00		36.91%		1210%		very illiquid
ACRO.CA	48.70		-3.37%		433%
$EGSA.CA	5.25		5.00%		378%		like MHOT
EGAL.CA	62.03		39.52%		315%
TMGH.CA	7.10		8.56%		227%		**
ABUK.CA	232.13		0.95%		181%
EXPA.CA	21.66		3.14%		181%
AMOC.CA	78.25		0.97%		174%
CSAG.CA	21.01		35.55%		161%
ALCN.CA	150.00		5.63%		141%
ROTO.CA	380.00		-1.76%		139%
ALUM.CA	60.90		25.83%		135%
SEIG.CA	85.52		-4.99%		111%
SCFM.CA	108.98		29.43%		90%
EGAS.CA	247.97		10.21%		84%
AREI.CA	108.00		-2.04%		81%
HDBK.CA	25.17		-2.82%		76%
NRPD.CA	38.25		25.41%		59%
RTVC.CA	8.86		6.62%		56%
$NANA.CA	21.05		-2.55%		55%
CEFM.CA	27.19		21.38%		54%
APSW.CA	6.36		18.88%		51%
SNFC.CA	72.85		7.61%		50%

the best and worst this week

Stock % CHG VOL EGAL.CA 39.52% 315% ICID.CA 38.75% -1% MHOT.CA 36.91% 1210% CSAG.CA 35.55% 161% NHPS.CA 34.57% 3% SCFM.CA 29.43% 90% EPCO.CA 27.32% -8% AICR.CA 26.57% -6% ALUM.CA 25.83% 135% NRPD.CA 25.41% 59% NIRE.CA 25.25% -93% AALR.CA 24.90% 4% GLAS.CA 24.20% -3% RREI.CA 24.12% -24% MOIN.CA 23.75% -86%

Stock % CHG VOL OLGR.CA  * -19.30% -8% AJWA.CA -13.68% -56% TRTO.CA -13.00% -99% OCDI.CA  * -10.64% -4% ORTE.CA  * -9.09% 33% ESRS.CA  * -7.34% -44% CANA.CA  * -6.75% -31% COMI.CA  * -5.53% -11% EMOB.CA  * -5.51% -2% EHDR.CA -4.90% 29% ELKA.CA -4.76% -59% HRHO.CA  * -4.73% 38% DARY.CA -4.60% -61% ETEL.CA  * -4.05% 33% SWDY.CA  * -3.85% -27%

as you see the worst stocks this week were the blue chips of the market (the starred symbols)

let’s see what the market show in the next week

the new portfolio performed very well this week +4.91%, the third week in row, very good start, I will past the week result in the journal blog now

from BUY to NEUTRAL, Goldman downgrades Orascom

ORTE.CA, EMOB.CA

“We believe that the stock is unlikely to outperform in the medium term as the company will likely suffer from economic problems in Pakistan and execution problems in Algeria,” the brokerage said. It cut its price target on the stock to 65 Egyptian pounds from 100 Egyptian pounds.

Goldman also cut its six-month price target on Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil, EMOB.CA) to 160 Egyptian pounds from 225 Egyptian pounds along with its estimates to reflect higher depreciation and interest expenses at the company.GulfNews

Egyptian Exchange: HFI Stocks Price Performance

I tried here to track the most liquid and working stocks in the market like the sectors performance table, I did this every week and was thinking to attach it here to ease of search

HFI constituents Price Performance

sorted by 1W change

• in one week the best performers were: ACGC.CA, SCEM.CA, ORWE.CA – sure you cant catch any of them except Arab Cotton this losy week regardless the cement, ACGC was the only clear entry
• in 2 Weeks there were:Sinai Cement SCEM and Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA – here I didnt saw any entry in the cement by I catched Telecom Egypt in my main account with 4 entries, in the new portfolio by two orders
• in Monthly basis we can see Sinai Cement too and GB Auto AUTO.CA, again the cement escaped from me too, and my portfolio loaded with Ghabour shares already (when your profit times from single stock cant be count on one hand, you fall in love with it and attach it to the eternal Watch List on the desktop)
• in three months view: there was EZZ ALDEKHELA IRAX.CA, SWDY.CA cables and Maridive MAPS.CA!, I saw the steel entry but didnt took it cuz it was very high (there was a breakout of the week high that gave this 10% profit), the cables SWDY.CA already taken with two separate trades(means each one entered and exit alone without addition, and MAPS was new listed company and I’m not interesting in the new stocks in EGX
• in 6 Months long I didnt took a trade with that long except in the old days when riding the big trend was the only method to profit from the Egyptian Exchange but if You watch you can see: EFIC.CA 54%, SVCE 18%, IRAX.CA 45%, ABUK.CA 18%, ORWE.CA 9% — I’m sure I haven’t any trade in ABUK or ORWE  neither SVCE.CA in the last 6 months, but EFIC Egy Financial I remember I were holding 19 positions in it in 20/5 and the liquidation began this week, I absorbed it trend very easily and happily, it was a great ride, EFIC has many memories with me, IRAX also I took a trade or two beside the mentioned above

interesting to see how your strategy success, and if it still or not!, this is what I mean by tracking, you can make it simpler by watching the best performers across 20 days only and see, did you catch any of them?, if many of them escaped, ask yourself why?!

UBS said EMOB.CA target is 160LE, Ops

• UBS & EMBO, Link
• Inflation and the stock, Link

Egypt Market Notes

TUE 20May08

the market still shay from rally, small candles and long wicks, a light executions!!

some are irregular like the Mills stock and some constructions

in the portfolio liquidates, ETRS liquidated

AUTO.CA	55.25		3.27%		289%		Watch
SIMO.CA	29.70		4.80%		252%
SWDY.CA	128.00		3.56%		246%
EPCO.CA	32.12		-5.81%		213%
ORWE.CA	55.99		5.70%		212%
ALCN.CA	289.50		14.43%		175%
ESGI.CA	48.00		21.21%		173%
HELI.CA	500.00		5.93%		136%
SCFM.CA	139.90		20.60%		102%
MFSC.CA	13.21		5.68%		88%
IRAX.CA	1,424.52		-0.31%		88%
EMOB.CA	180.00		2.18%		86%		Still Watch
ECMI.CA	100.50		6.91%		78%		Good