Sunday 13 SEP 09 Wrap-up

SKPC and IFAP closed today, the first in profit 1R/1R @ 12.12 and the second in small loss 0.3R/1R @ 15.4

from  the weekly watch list 3 positions initiated: AUTO @ AV27.8, MICH @ av14.2 (2nd in pyramid), IDEA @ av32.8 and nothing more from the daily watch list

the active positions list contain now 7 orders and EREC is the best performers

today, the scan generates many opportunities from the daily charts and that beside the remaining of the weekly watch list

the list below, click to enlarge

Trading Ideas for Monday 10 August, EGX

Stocks to Watch:

• ECAP: Entry @ 6.75, SL @ 6.30, TP X0.45 [construction]
• IDEA: Entry @ 34,SL @ 30.75, TP X3.25 [construction]
• NCCW: Entry @ 64, SL @ 59.5, TP X4.5 [construction]
• CPCI: Entry @ 52, SL @ 48, Target X4 [healthcare]
• GLAS: Entry @ 23.25, SL @ 21.50, Target X1.75 [industrial]

 

Notes:

• be selective and careful, the market behavior still unclear
• watch the construction sector while the retreat in cements strength, it’s the money flow between sector’s stocks
• it seems it wont be a blue chips week!
• trail the stops of yesterday’s positions, many of them did well

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

Today’s Volumes

Up in Volume and price

AUTO.CA  255%
AREI.CA   235%
AMOC.CA  234%
OCDI.CA   223%
IDEA.CA    195%
CIEB.CA    166%
OLGR.CA   106%
MICH.CA    101%
PIOH.CA    84%

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 21-25 SEP 08

another correction week with lighter liquidity, the market drop -1.71% and some sectors outperformed this week like the chemicals, the foreign investors power selling do everything and even the local institutional cant help this market, wait for bounce after the bailout meeting decision today

Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol
MCQE.CA	78.00		5.05%		258%
EGAL.CA	48.35		-22.05%		231%
OCIC.CA	311.00		2.57%		87%
AFDI.CA	37.78		2.08%		75%
SVCE.CA	9.70		-12.53%		62%
NRPD.CA	31.53		1.71%		55%
SWDY.CA	100.06		4.46%		53%
ETRS.CA	55.50		17.46%		40%

Best and Worst Performers

Stock % CHG VOL TRTO.CA 55.65% -82% MOIN.CA 34.87% -60% AMRI.CA 25.62% -99% PACH.CA 21.59% -89% AREHA.CA 19.93% -90% ICID.CA 19.40% -75% RREI.CA 17.57% -52% ETRS.CA 17.46% 40% ROTO.CA 16.74% -59% TORA.CA 14.76% 10% HDBK.CA 14.34% -8% SNFC.CA 13.75% -49% EGAS.CA 10.88% -70% INFI.CA 10.53% -69% OLGR.CA 10.46% -52%

Stock % CHG VOL AALR.CA -43.78% -84% ECMI.CA -26.90% -91% AJWA.CA -25.21% -91% PRCL.CA -22.88% -23% FOAM.CA -22.58% -95% EGAL.CA -22.05% 231% IFAP.CA -19.15% -52% EPCO.CA -17.95% -29% MENA.CA -16.13% -71% OCDI.CA -14.35% -70% GMCI.CA -13.49% IDEA.CA -13.33% -7% KZPC.CA -12.62% -60% SVCE.CA -12.53% 62% ACRO.CA -11.08% -71%

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 31/8-4/9

very interesting week, tumbled in the first two sessions by the help of Hisham Talaat Mustafa arresting news and it’s stock blowing and rebound in the end sessions and closed +0.3%

many stocks outperformed this week and little number dropped

the worst sectors this week were: Telecoms, Basic Resources and Real estate

the last one has the murdering issue and the first going down by the bad news of Orascom Telecom bad earning release

the best sectors were the Financials +4.51%, Constructions +4.46%, Chemicals +3.92% which contain many of the blue chips of the market like OCIC.CA, HRHO.CA, EFIC.CA

The Volume Leaders and the Top/Worst Performers this week

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
TMGH.CA	6.54		1.08%		370%		Vol: 216M
ACRO.CA	50.40		-3.08%		227%
$NAHO.CA	0.90		1.12%		222%
ABUK.CA	229.95		4.05%		153%
EGAL.CA	44.46		-0.71%		150%
AREI.CA	110.25		4.01%		146%
CSAG.CA	15.50		7.64%		103%
ALCN.CA	142.00		10.95%		97%
HDBK.CA	25.90		8.14%		86%
MBSC.CA	69.61		0.88%		83%
EHDR.CA	7.55		21.77%		69%
EGAS.CA	225.00		33.14%		63%
AFDI.CA	52.60		36.45%		60%
AREHA.CA	20.16		12.63%		41%

Stock % CHG VOL SNFC.CA 52.82% 9% SNFI.CA 47.23% -45% ABRD.CA 45.61% 40% AFDI.CA 36.45% 60% EGAS.CA 33.14% 63% MENA.CA 26.95% -25% AALR.CA 24.90% 4% EHDR.CA 21.77% 69% OLGR.CA 20.00% 39% NCCW.CA 19.91% -14% GIHD.CA 17.35% -23% IDEA.CA 15.08% -23% INFI.CA 14.88% -17% HCFI.CA 14.29% 21% SMPP.CA 13.62% -95%

Stock % CHG VOL SCAR.CA -14.92% -47% ORTE.CA -9.67% 29% CERA.CA -9.65% -66% ORWE.CA -8.89% -37% WACE.CA -7.54% -55% PPIS.CA -7.24% -79% EGBE.CA -7.14% -52% EGSA.CA -5.66% -27% ETEL.CA -5.18% -44% MOIN.CA -4.93% -87% ESRS.CA -4.65% -13% RTVC.CA -4.37% 21% SAUD.CA -4.18% -62% ESGI.CA -4.06% -89% AIVC.CA -4.04% 16%

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 10-14Aug08 …1

The most interesting week we didn’t see long time

The Week begins as regular dropping slowly with the average speed until the Wednesday the market press the clutch many times LOL and then dropped aprox. 5%, the small investors throw their holding with any prices, the market rebound little this day and end the week in Thursday with a complete rebound

Note: the rebound erased Wednesday loses only, On weekly basis the market loused -7.39%, and there is long way before we talk about any complete rebound, this is as usual the traders rebound, and the market will continue with the congestion and his way down

alot of activity this week in many stocks, also a good number of stocks made All Time Low

Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
AJWA.CA	91.00		1.10%		232%		Food
ORHD.CA	50.00		-1.56%		222%		Travel
LCSW.CA	29.88		14.92%		190%		Construction
TMGH.CA	6.53		-17.45%		122%		Real Estate
NRPD.CA	29.70		-17.64%		75%		Construction
CSAG.CA	15.87		-14.81%		75%		Industrial
AMOC.CA	69.78		-0.31%		70%		Oil & Gas
MFSC.CA	7.45		8.92%		64%		Retail
ESRS.CA	65.90		-12.13%		63%		Basic Resources
COMI.CA	50.00		-0.60%		60%		Banks
AMES.CA	39.70		-23.14%		37%		Healthcare

as You see, there is no money flow into specific sector, the accumulation in the last two days was regular stupid accumulation done by the institutional investors and not by Foreign investors (they’re still going out of the whole Market)!

if you look at the Best/Worst Performers, you can list the whole market as a worst performers LOL, but the funny point is there are Best performers also this week, but are useless stock behaviors(< 100 shares Volumes)

Stock % CHG VOL OBMI.CA 33.84% -91% WATA.CA 31.29% -99% LCSW.CA 14.92% 190% SEIG.CA 12.64% -75% ACGC.CA 9.86% -22% ALEX.CA 9.32% -74% MFSC.CA 8.92% 64% ESGI.CA 8.69% -95% SCEM.CA 8.56% -47% $ESGA.CA 7.91% -98% HCFI.OTC 6.61% 0% Best

Stock % CHG VOL NIRE.CA -32.75% -95% TRTO.CA -26.45% -97% AFDI.CA -26.08% -13% NEDA.CA -25.53% -80% EREC.CA -24.24% -85% UNIP.CA -23.35% 19% AMES.CA -23.14% 37% HELI.CA -22.61% 33% MILS.CA -22.42% -55% NCCW.CA -21.25% -59% PRCL.CA -20.84% -19% ABRD.CA -20.53% -9% UASG.CA -20.41% -47% IDEA.CA -20.16% -51% Worst

All Time Low Stocks

Stock	% CHG	VOL
$AIVC.CA	-6.00%	-39%
AREH.CA	-16.53%	-60%
AREHA.CA	-13.48%	-91%
DEVE.CA	-9.35%	-23%
$NAHO.CA	-7.37%	-51%
PHDC.CA	-0.65%	-
RUBX.CA	-8.37%	-58%
TMGH.CA	-17.45%	122%

The Weekly wrap continue in the next posts …..

Egypt Weekly Wrap 20-24July08

congestion continued this week, Up, down, down, Up, ending almost flat with small drop

some stocks shows accumulation, but still vague view, remember the holiday in the middle of the week

Volume Leaders:

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
UNIP.CA	51.40		-15.74%		255%
MILS.CA	56.00		51.35%		194%
AGIN.CA	1.18		1.72%		185%		OTC
MPCO.CA	30.40		-4.55%		140%
CEFM.CA	25.95		27.46%		90%
IDEA.CA	46.05		-4.06%		80%
GSSC.CA	47.01		23.71%		29%
SKPC.CA	18.36		0.33%		26%

The Mills Stocks shows unprofessional bids and some of the surges, may be its a short life run, let’s see

Best & Worst performers

Stock % CHG VOL MILS.CA 51.35% 194% $TRTO.CA 32.56% -55% ETRS.CA 27.85% 6% CEFM.CA 27.46% 90% WCDF.CA 25.44% 9% GSSC.CA 23.71% 29% AIUR.CA 14.11% -94% CSAG.CA 13.64% -36% ORHD.CA 13.31% -98% RTVC.CA 13.11% -51% AFMC.CA 12.20% 1%

Stock % CHG VOL $NAHO.CA -18.52% -22% PRCL.CA -17.75% -32% UNIP.CA -15.74% 255% IEEC.CA -12.01% -22% ALEX.CA -11.11% 101% SNFI.CA -10.25% -67% SNFC.CA -9.15% -63% ESGI.CA -9.15% -95% CERA.CA -8.96% -67% SCAR.CA -7.72% -35% AFDI.CA -7.04% -57%

Egyptian Stock Exchange Wrap 22-26 Jun08

very mixed week, breaching the major MA, activity in the abandoned sectors (the defenders) and a great ending 

you cant talk about the Egyptian market as a whole market, you must first specify a timing scheme and then sector scheme and then talk

as we at the middle of the year at least half of the sectors performed well in this period, Food sector grown by 107%, chemicals 42% also the worst sectors performance were telecom sector -26%, travel & Leisure sector -22%, so even if you diversify your investement across the sectors at the end you will be a winner

the point is: you still can make money in Egypt market

it’s not the year of the blue chips ofcourse but who cares about the investing stock types this days

here is the volume leaders for this week

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
SEIG.CA	130.00		-7.06%		545%
AMES.CA	79.90		33.17%		525%		Healthcare
AGIN.CA	1.50		100.00%		458%		OTC
KZPC.CA	152.20		5.66%		451%
MPCO.CA	49.00		24.05%		396%
PHDC.CA	18.00		-3.74%		352%
IDEA.CA	75.00		20.97%		339%
SCAR.CA	60.80		-3.18%		241%
POUL.CA	66.20		-2.16%		231%
NRPD.CA	57.00		-20.06%		210%
WACE.CA	96.97		31.93%		174%
NHPS.CA	52.53		-12.45%		167%
SNFI.CA	40.06		23.15%		162%
ALUM.CA	104.00		-7.78%		162%
AREH.CA	25.50		0.00%		156%
MEDU.CA	30.80		-16.42%		155%		Healthcare
DEVE.CA	13.25		-16.19%		149%		Banks
ELSH.CA	14.85		4.21%		146%
NCEM.CA	29.81		-12.32%		134%		CEMENT
RAKT.CA	37.02		-16.81%		132%
INFI.CA	43.00		12.83%		115%
SUCE.CA	50.00		-1.03%		100%		CEMENT
CERA.CA	47.99		2.08%		95%
PHAR.CA	34.90		-0.29%		92%		Healthcare
ALEX.CA	95.00		37.66%		91%		CEMENT
IEEC.CA	64.00		20.80%		87%		OTC
GIHD.CA	68.00		-11.73%		83%
CCRS.CA	37.51		8.72%		79%
SMPP.CA	38.00		-8.19%		79%
ACRO.CA	85.30		-1.63%		78%
AFDI.CA	95.00		0.65%		77%
AREHA.CA	32.50		0.00%		75%
ECMI.CA	110.00		1.37%		73%
CIEB.CA	19.03		-4.85%		69%		Banks
COMI.CA	84.50		-1.42%		67%		Banks
GGCC.CA	74.00		-2.96%		53%
ABRD.CA	119.69		-0.18%		49%

as you can see very mixed, the majors here the healthcare and the banks, the banks will see tough days coming cuz the miserable valuation by the foreign buys for the 3rd largest  Egyptian banks, it’s always bad when the reality coming, but it’s the truth, it’s not the banking sector only, it’s the whole economy who receive this message

for $2.2B you can buy the branches places only not the bank system!!, but this is their valuation, and it’s true 

also you can see the activity in the OTC market and it serves as great message to the new planned regulation rules they talk about, and the message is :”Go fuck yourself”   LOL 

Cairo Volume Leaders, 15-19 June08

The week was boring but end in exciting actions, a drop in the main index without following by the major blue chips, Did you notice this?!!, very interesting

the bearish view still and it help us very well those past weeks

regardless the -2.4% drop this week, there are also few stocks made All Time High, and others performed very well in the OTC market and other illiquid stocks

——————————–

the Volume Leaders this week are

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
KZPC.CA	144.05		18.08%		797%
NRPD.CA	71.30		18.83%		411%
IDEA.CA	62.00		10.73%		375%
MPCO.CA	39.50		10.58%		304%
POUL.CA	67.66		-0.95%		295%
NHPS.CA	60.00		17.42%		291%
SCAR.CA	62.80		18.25%		240%
GIHD.CA	77.05		43.22%		221%
TRTO.CA	4.50		16.88%		215%
EREC.CA	53.54		12.72%		182%
SNFC.CA	118.15		60.09%		170%
AMRI.CA	43.90		33.03%		159%
WACE.CA	73.50		16.67%		152%
ALUM.CA	112.77		-8.32%		141%
EGCH.CA	136.25		14.49%		136%
INFI.CA	38.11		24.95%		127%
RAKT.CA	44.50		11.25%		124%
GLAS.CA	48.78		3.81%		115%
NCEM.CA	34.00		7.05%		110%
IEEC.CA	52.98		26.29%		98%
TORA.CA	168.10		-9.62%		95%
AFDI.CA	94.39		24.20%		89%
PPIS.CA	68.00		-3.00%		72%
ELKA.CA	28.19		-4.38%		68%
HCFI.CA	1.48		-8.07%		65%
MRCO.CA	73.35		4.79%		64%
RUBX.CA	17.70		-13.24%		63%
MOSC.A	38.25		5.72%		53%
NCCW.CA	109.88		5.66%		42%