Sunday 13 SEP 09 Wrap-up

SKPC and IFAP closed today, the first in profit 1R/1R @ 12.12 and the second in small loss 0.3R/1R @ 15.4

from  the weekly watch list 3 positions initiated: AUTO @ AV27.8, MICH @ av14.2 (2nd in pyramid), IDEA @ av32.8 and nothing more from the daily watch list

the active positions list contain now 7 orders and EREC is the best performers

today, the scan generates many opportunities from the daily charts and that beside the remaining of the weekly watch list

the list below, click to enlarge

Stocks to Watch: Week 38/2009, EGX

the last week we liquidated one position in the last session Thursday, NRPD @ 108 with small profits and this cuz the stock price action didn’t play well

and still hold 6 positions to the next week: MICH, MNHD, SKPC, EREC, IFAP, SUGR (2 Chemicals, 2 Food, 2 Real Estates, nice diversification huh!) LOL

one of them MT: MICH and the others ST

the global Un P/L in green and this close our eyes at night

some stocks to watch in the next week, the majority for weekly tracking and only 4 for sunday

I like this type of markets because not everyone can trade it

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

Egyptian Exchange Weekly Wrap 21-25 SEP 08

another correction week with lighter liquidity, the market drop -1.71% and some sectors outperformed this week like the chemicals, the foreign investors power selling do everything and even the local institutional cant help this market, wait for bounce after the bailout meeting decision today

Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol
MCQE.CA	78.00		5.05%		258%
EGAL.CA	48.35		-22.05%		231%
OCIC.CA	311.00		2.57%		87%
AFDI.CA	37.78		2.08%		75%
SVCE.CA	9.70		-12.53%		62%
NRPD.CA	31.53		1.71%		55%
SWDY.CA	100.06		4.46%		53%
ETRS.CA	55.50		17.46%		40%

Best and Worst Performers

Stock % CHG VOL TRTO.CA 55.65% -82% MOIN.CA 34.87% -60% AMRI.CA 25.62% -99% PACH.CA 21.59% -89% AREHA.CA 19.93% -90% ICID.CA 19.40% -75% RREI.CA 17.57% -52% ETRS.CA 17.46% 40% ROTO.CA 16.74% -59% TORA.CA 14.76% 10% HDBK.CA 14.34% -8% SNFC.CA 13.75% -49% EGAS.CA 10.88% -70% INFI.CA 10.53% -69% OLGR.CA 10.46% -52%

Stock % CHG VOL AALR.CA -43.78% -84% ECMI.CA -26.90% -91% AJWA.CA -25.21% -91% PRCL.CA -22.88% -23% FOAM.CA -22.58% -95% EGAL.CA -22.05% 231% IFAP.CA -19.15% -52% EPCO.CA -17.95% -29% MENA.CA -16.13% -71% OCDI.CA -14.35% -70% GMCI.CA -13.49% IDEA.CA -13.33% -7% KZPC.CA -12.62% -60% SVCE.CA -12.53% 62% ACRO.CA -11.08% -71%

Market and Top & Worst Performers

Stock % CHG VOL PIOH.CA 58.23% - SNFI.CA 47.99% 43% NMPH.CA 18.33% 76% EAST.CA 9.09% -62% FOAM.CA 7.31% -86% AFMC.CA 6.55% -70% MOIN.CA 5.52% -54% DEIN.CA 5.26% -89% NEDA.CA 4.43% -75% MAPS.CA 3.56% 68% HELI.CA 3.53% 8% Best Performers

Stock % CHG VOL AGIN.CA -28.67% 378% RREI.CA -27.88% -80% INFI.CA -26.63% -21% MCQE.CA -25.67% -55% IEEC.CA -23.44% -27% EPCO.CA -23.17% -27% NCCW.CA -22.20% -53% NIRE.CA -17.58% -66% UNIP.CA -15.67% 99% MPCO.CA -15.10% 65% IFAP.CA -14.54% -85% Worst Performers

Egypt Market: EOD, EOW, EOM Notes 2

Weekly View

Volume Leaders this week

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
IDEA.CA	62.02		47.49%		454%
MPCO.CA	35.49		35.50%		289%
CIRA.CA	45.27		37.31%		256%
TMGH.CA	10.70		10.20%		247%		Deal
ETRS.CA	44.75		17.76%		231%		liquidated too early
BISM.CA	39.98		23.20%		230%
$NAHO.CA	2.18		3.81%		216%
AFDI.CA	84.00		11.70%		193%
MILS.CA	75.68		25.09%		188%
IRON.CA	64.00		40.63%		172%
ORWE.CA	66.00		11.98%		153%
ESGI.CA	56.05		8.88%		150%
CCRS.CA	30.53		20.20%		144%
ASCM.CA	226.00		0.58%		143%		watch
ABRD.CA	132.05		-4.66%		132%
AALR.CA	84.93		82.45%		127%
NCCW.CA	46.03		19.19%		119%
ELKA.CA	34.90		7.39%		112%
GMCI.CA	102.10		26.50%		109%		G
DAPH.CA	46.90		0.17%		98%		watch
IFAP.CA	64.22		28.71%		88%
GSSC.CA	77.25		21.18%		86%		G
DCRC.CA	26.90		2.01%		85%		watch
RAYA.CA	13.81		8.06%		70%
MOSC.CA	33.12		4.48%		70%
EPCO.CA	39.97		15.19%		61%
WCDF.CA	75.00		20.97%		57%
NMPH.CA	60.51		-0.80%		53%
POUL.CA	66.89		24.10%		52%

Stocks Closed All Time High

Stock	% CHG	VOL
AALR.CA	82.45%	127%
AFDI.CA	11.70%	193%
CIRA.CA	37.31%	256%
ENGC.CA	26.23%	26%
EPCO.CA	15.19%	61%
ESGI.CA	8.88%	150%
ETRS.CA	17.76%	231%
GMCI.CA	26.50%	109%
IDEA.CA	47.49%	454%
IFAP.CA	28.71%	88%
IRON.CA	40.63%	172%
MILS.CA	25.09%	188%
NEDA	1.42%	27%
POUL.CA	24.10%	52%
RREI.CA	22.98%	37%
SBAG.CA	2.71%	26%
SCFM.CA	26.88%	47%
UEFM.CA	2.53%	0%
WCDF.CA	20.97%	57%

Egypt Boursah Update TUE 27May08

today was the first day we return to the usual turnover after the selloff week

a heavy rebound but take care in the short term trades, the view still bearish, the Main index under it’s MA, MT, LT still up

some today’s Volume leaders

$NAHO.CA	2.12		-0.47%		1181%
IFAP.CA	64.27		-1.12%		697%
ENGC.CA	20.65		0.78%		495%
DAPH.CA	48.78		-0.04%		398%		!!, very interesting exec.
ORWE.CA	69.40		16.15%		387%
MOSC.CA	35.36		8.20%		347%
ETRS.CA	39.80		6.13%		293%
NCCW.CA	44.50		-1.33%		256%
GSSC.CA	79.00		8.26%		206%
KABO.CA	4.06		10.63%		179%
SIMO.CA	43.80		21.67%		163%

All Time High Stocks

ETRS.CA	6.13%	141%
POUL.CA	27.58%	748%
SIMO.CA	21.67%	128%
UEFM.CA	3.65%	30%
SBAG.CA	11.86%	77%

the portfolio still light and I’m not used to have alot of cash, I consider it unused money

best portofolio performers GMCI, DAPH, GSSC, EMOB

watch list for today beside the last list:

EGAL, AMOC  << MT

APSW, KABO, SPIN, MOSC  << ST

Cairo Boursah Notes THU 13MAY08

The market acted as a beautiful downtrend, standard one which accelerate and rest ..

the point today is the rebound in some stocks in the last of the session!!

you can note two things about those bids and buys:- the first: they are hungry the second: they are mixed small and big

> so if they are hungry then they are not pro and the point in they size which also can be leveraged or unwise

another note here is in the investors types manipulation: the foreign investors(which are the controllers of this market completely) are the net sellers today and the Arab investors (which are the short term and scalpers in any market) are the net buyers ..

very interesting

what I can conclude from this

this serves the downtrend very well which indicate the reason for the rebound and the bids

the rebound will continue for less than 3 days (which are the settlement period) and then it serves the downtrend as a correction

the view is till bearish or very bearish until anything new appears

nothing new in the portfolio:still holding GMCI and the 3rd phase accumulation in TMGH.CA executed today and still looking for entry in EMOB.CA, AUTO.CA

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
SWDY.CA	123.61		1.20%		533%
IFAP.CA	443.97		-8.27%		316%
HRHO.CA	50.00		4.17%		270%		look at this
COMI.CA	83.00		2.48%		149%
EMOB.CA	180.80		-2.33%		141%		WATCH
ORTE.CA	78.10		-1.14%		135%
IDEA.CA	37.40		-10.95%		118%
ETEL.CA	18.93		-2.17%		63%		WATCH
TMGH.CA	9.86		-3.74%		62%
ESRS.CA	83.02		0.02%		62%
OCIC.CA	378.00		-1.18%		53%

CAIRRRRRRO: SUN 080512 Notes

a very interesting beginning for the week 

a large caps melting day, a real red day

some volume leaders

IDEA.CA	38.47		32.61%		545%
ESGI.CA	37.00		9.14%		381%
SMPP.CA	42.01		-4.50%		335%
ABRD.CA	142.00		12.25%		315%
NMPH.CA	68.90		6.00%		297%
DAPH.CA	50.21		3.53%		268%
EGAL.CA	99.99		8.33%		234%
SIMO.CA	33.00		6.11%		234%
ETRS.CA	26.61		3.54%		219%
KABO.CA	4.14		-3.50%		110%
TMGH.CA	10.42		-5.36%		101%
AALR.CA	58.49		9.12%		99%
MOSC.CA	37.01		0.00%		95%
IFAP.CA	505.00		5.98%		94%
ESRS.CA	84.25		-6.39%		73%
OCIC.CA	396.00		-4.12%		70%
HRHO.CA	50.00		-6.54%		55%

watching EMOB, AUTO to pick a good price

out tickets are reserved, just watch 

Cairo: the Week Notes

THU 080508

Volume Leaders

Stock	Last		% change		% Vol		Notes
SKPC.CA	22.25		6.00%		759%		BIG DEAL
WACE.CA	46.06		47.30%		254%
RAKT.CA	37.02		18.43%		205%
AUTO.CA	61.06		1.77%		190%
AICR.CA	5.65		9.50%		189%		OTC
IEEC.CA	30.88		20.11%		186%		OTC
ABRD.CA	126.50		3.03%		184%
SMPP.CA	43.99		39.61%		175%
ROTO.CA	560.00		4.67%		175%
MILS.CA	71.00		29.70%		167%
NCCW.CA	41.53		9.87%		167%
NMPH.CA	65.00		95.20%		150%		IN JUST ONE WEEK
TOUR.CA	34.82		13.16%		121%
EDFM.CA	63.00		26.61%		116%
GIHD.CA	44.26		5.33%		114%
KABO.CA	4.29		34.91%		113%
HCFI.CA	1.65		5.77%		110%		OTC
AFDI.CA	63.00		18.87%		108%
OLGR.CA	80.80		-3.38%		94%
WCDF.CA	75.25		25.40%		75%
AFMC.CA	55.04		22.47%		75%
IFAP.CA	476.50		43.18%		71%
$NAHO.CA	2.40		-1.64%		56%
GGCC.CA	85.00		20.57%		56%
MPCO.CA	28.68		11.21%		51%

Sectors performance

sorted by 1W change

Sectors 9/5/08
SYM		CLOSE	D	% D	%W	%2W	%4W	%3M	%6M	%YTD
Household		1389	-15	-1.07%	4.04%	3.81%	7.84%	26.27%	28.94%	29.52%
Chemicals		1743	-21	-1.19%	3.32%	-0.06%	9.97%	46.84%	61.70%	53.15%
Real Estate		2536	-25	-0.98%	0.75%	3.01%	-1.17%	16.49%	30.44%	15.78%
Financials		1598	-13	-0.81%	0.44%	0.00%	-2.38%	9.38%	19.20%	10.17%
Food		1949	-37	-1.86%	0.15%	6.62%	4.67%	46.43%	76.51%	76.97%
Industrials		3244	-27	-0.83%	-1.10%	-2.99%	-6.67%	14.39%	33.98%	14.82%
Telecommunication		1093	1	0.09%	-1.18%	-2.41%	0.46%	-6.58%	-0.24%	-14.71%
Market		11546.38	-151.02	-1.29%	-2.04%	-3.08%	-0.46%	9.71%	23.33%	9.45%
Banks		1509	-23	-1.50%	-2.33%	1.07%	-2.08%	-3.52%	3.38%	-5.15%
Healthcare		1281	0	0.00%	-2.95%	-0.70%	-1.31%	0.39%	11.53%	6.42%
Travel & Leisure		1943	18	0.94%	-3.24%	-1.82%	-3.57%	3.90%	9.25%	1.34%
Construction		2526	-100	-3.81%	-4.54%	-8.28%	1.61%	30.34%	44.22%	32.77%
Basic Resources		1604	-10	-0.62%	-5.42%	-3.72%	-2.20%	32.78%	47.77%	32.66%

The next week will be interesting