EGX: Stocks to Watch, Week 37/2009

some stocks to watch for breakout in the next week MT and ST

the last position was in ENGC and we’re flat now for new round ..

 

The results effect, EGX –3.3%

finally … the market did it and saw the reality of results

our chosen 53 basket of stocks which we always follow haven’t any advanced stock except BIOC.CA and 48 stocks record more than –3% today

all the active positions liquidated today except AITG.CA cuz the Up Gap and the stable performance, all of them closed in profit except ENGC loss of the half risk and CPCI closed at BE

this is the importance of tight stops in times like this

of course the pending orders list didn’t trigger any position today or gone near they entry points

many stocks will show Short tomorrow if the lows of today taken, some of them in the next table:

and the bad companies results continue today

• Beltone Holding dips 88% in 1H09 results
• October Pharma Egypt dips 43% in 1H09 results

London/Egypt GDRs last Quotes/Charts

CIB Egypt Bank CBKD/COMI
EFG Hermes EFGD/HRHO
Orascom Const ORSD/OCIC
Orascom Telecom OTLD/ORTE

Egyptian Market, Earnings Week

Bad 1Q Earnings

Bad Earnings is the title of this week, most companies released it’s reports and statements this week without any surprise, we were predicting those results after the crisis but the surprise was in the banks and Maridive (MOIL.CA),

the banks sectors made new record that beat the report of the first quarter for 2008 and this was big surprise after all this bad news from the western banks, but for Maridive, it recorded a decline in profits which was unexpected by major analysts

some of the results released this week:

Banks

• Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE): 19% decline (197M EGP / 244M EGP)
• El Watany Bank of Egypt (WATA): 3.4% growth (103M EGP / 99M EGP)
• CIB, Commercial International Bank (COMI): 1.4% growth (471M EGP / 465M EGP)
• National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB): 50.7% growth (312M EGP / 207M EGP)

Others

• Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC): 53.2% decline (140M EGP / 299M EGP)
• Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC): 46% decline (105M USD /197M USD)
• Egyptian Financial & industrial (EFIC): 84.2% decline (15M EGP / 96M EGP)
• El Ezz Aldekhela Steel (IRAX): 76.3% decline (185M EGP / 780M EGP)
• Mobinil (EMOB): 23.3% growth (576M EGP / 467M EGP)
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO): 59.8% decline (140M EGP / 349M EGP)
• Delta Sugar (SUGR): loss in 1Q09 (-16M EGP / 127M EGP)
• Telecom Egypt (ETEL): 72.4% growth (962M EGP / 558m EGP)
• Oriental Weavers (ORWE): 14.4% growth (107M EGP / 94M EGP)
• Palm Hills Development Company (PHDC): 65.8% decline (61M EGP / 175M EGP)
• Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL): 16.4% decline (23.4M USD / 28M USD)
• International Agricultural Products (IFAP): record 69% decline (6.6M EGP / 21M EGP)
• Suez Cement (SUCE): 0.9% decline (355M EGP / 358M EGP)
• Olympic Group Financial Investments (OLGR): 55.8% decline (30.5M EGP / 69M EGP)
• Delta Industries (IDEA): 49.3% decline (37M EGP / 73M EGP)
• Helwan Cement (HCCO): 1.4% decline (160M EGP / 162M EGP)
• National Cement (NCEM): 13.8% decline (149M EGP / 173M EGP)
• El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products (WACE): 32.6% decline (5.5M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Egyptians Abroad for Investment & Development (ABRD): 71% decline (4.8M EGP / 16.8M EGP)
• Egyptians Housing Development (EHDR): 87.4% decline (1M EGP / 8M EGP)
• Rowad Tourism (ROTO): 66% decline (1M EGP / 3M EGP)
• Sheeni (PRCL): 19.2% decline (3M EGP / 3.8M EGP)

Alco, Maridive & Sheeni for today

Today 4 orders triggered from the pending orders list

as in the list we were monitoring those the performance of those stocks on some levels

Alco (RREI) has run today and hungry orders that cause impulsive breakout on both levels 2.9, 3.45

we catch both of them 300K shares @ 2.9 and 15.5K @ 3.4 another order waiting @ 3.9, the current SL 2.9

always take care with any trade in the OTC market

Maridive too (MOIL) did great job today but we must take care in this cuz one of the main holders (EFG Hermes) are getting out of it

we are in it @ 3.1 with 88.3K shares and current SL @ 2.8

Sheeni (PRCL) did what we waiting for the past two sessions, the breakout of 9.35 was great today

we catch it with 78.6K shares, other additions pending @ 11.25, 13.15 respectively

you can see others are doing great from the list but I didn’t have any interest in them like: IRON, EGAL, OCIC

EGX New Opportunities and weak start for the Week

Here are some MT opportunities in this market, I want to look at the UAE’s too

some of those pending entries breached today but with very week performance and light bids over them

so I must be selective and take those who corrected with at least three weekly bars

those who activated the first entry, you can join them with the additions if you saw strength in their performance in the rest of the weeks’ sessions

those are New entries not addition to existing cuz some of them have pyramids already, so you must take care and use small percent of risk

the red symbols for the breached entries in Sunday 3 May 09 session

I see that Glaxo Smith (BIOC) will show good opportunity if it took off 14.7 and first and stay stable there, we can consider it as as a swine flu stock and under 13 it will give a short while the news effect fades

BIOC recommend by Ghada,

Sawiris Mobinils Shares Lodged as Collateral by Banks

France Telecom and Orascom very interesting Show:

[Dow Jones]

France Telecom SA (FTE) said Thursday the shares of Egyptian mobile operator Mobinil held by Orascom Telecom Holding (ORTE.CI) are still lodged as collateral and suggested they might not be delivered to the French telecommunciations giant by the court-ordered deadline of April 10.

Orascom has been ordered to sell and quickly deliver to France Telecom the 28.75% of Mobinil that the French group doesn’t already own. France Telecom said it has the money available for the transaction, but the shares aren’t.

yeaaah The Shares arent here and this is very bad news for Orasom Telecom (ORTE.CA/OTLD.IL)

without any investigation and what Sawiris doing now (conferences, shows, TV talks) is the biggest sign for the company takeover and financial break over the MID Term

from France Telecom Official Site

At the end of the 30-day period fixed by the Arbitration Court, the Mobinil shares currently held by Orascom Telecom remain under pledge due to the fact that Orascom Telecom has not yet resolved the conditions for their release with its creditor banks. The Arbitration Court’s decision provided for such a situation through the insertion of a penalty of USD 50,000 per day to be levied against Orascom Telecom from April 10 until the full execution of the award.

France Telecom has requested Orascom Telecom to resolve the difficulties with its creditors as quickly as possible and to provide a clear and precise indication as to when the shares will be available. The release of pledged shares is a necessary condition for the full execution of the Arbitration Court’s decision. At this stage, the necessary funds for the payment of this transaction are already available and every assurance has been given to Orascom Telecom.

If the situation remains unchanged, France Telecom reserves the possibility to enter into direct relations with Orascom Telecom’s creditors as permitted by the conditions governing such pledged shares.

In line with the statement issued by Orascom Telecom on April 5, France Telecom hopes that the award will be fully executed within the shortest possible timeframe. Once this has taken place, France Telecom wishes to re-enter into discussions with the Egyptian market authorities in order to make a fair offer to minority and individual shareholders of ECMS

from Forbes on Sawiris

Naguib Sawiris criticized what he described as "childish" behavior by some officials within France Telecom in tackling a shareholder dispute Orascom had filed with the arbitration court in 2007.

and $50K per day past 19 April 09 deadline

also the Egyptian Capital Market Authority (CMA) issued a prohibition for the news agencies for talking or analyzing anything about the case (LOOOOOL) this also with the hands of Sawiris, another sign as we talk

here the prohibition statement

based on the role of the CMA to versee the provision and dissemination of information and adequate data on the Capital Market and to verify the integrity and blah blah blaaaaaah

Based on the fact that influence or attempt to influence or manipulate the market prices of securities traded whether through publication or assist in the dissemination of the data or information is untrue misleading or audited or relating to the imminent change price of the securities, or through the means to make Information of any kind, or inaccurate information UNAUDITED would impact on the market or when the client is one of the most serious crimes, the law of the capital market.

In the light of the overwhelming flood of statements and mutual legal and economic analysis in relation to the arbitration award is binding on the sale of Orascom Telecom, a full share in the company Orascom Telecom (an Egyptian joint stock company, however, constrained by the stock exchange), and the subsequent decision of the President of the Capital Market Authority’s refusal to offer the compulsory purchase by from France Telecom for the entire shares of the Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (an Egyptian joint stock company, however, constrained by the Egyptian Stock Exchange).

The Commission warns all parties and all of the statement or publication of any statement or information relating to arbitration and by virtue of its implementation, and with the requisite capital market law in action in relation to the rules of acquisition, and to make what is expected, a result of negotiations between the parties to the arbitration award, and their impact on the relationship of stock prices traded on the Stock Exchange, the need to refrain from any statement or publication of news or information or statement within the scope of the Syndicate provided for in the Criminal Law of the capital market.

The Commission affirms that it will take all measures prescribed by the law to all outside the scope of the provisions of the law both in terms of manipulating the prices of securities or in respect of dealing securities on the basis of inside information.

LOL

like what we said before , you can smell Sawiris family in this issue like the previous declaration that want to retreat France Telecom by forcing them to buy the other market shares by the same price

and the same reason still here: Egypt and Egyptians,  Patriotism, colonialism, Inferiority look, … etc

only losers who change their way when they facing problems, it’s business not politics

London/Egypt GDRs Latest Weekly Charts

 

CIB Bank CBKD.IL/COMI.CA 4.6% / 0.8%
EFG Hermes EFGD.IL/HRHO.CA 18.5% / 21.8%
Orascom Telecom OTLD.IL/ORTE.CA 6.8% / 13.4%
Orascom Const. ORSD.IL/OCIC.CA -0.6% / 4.4%

London GDRs Update

Nothing New to those fucking dual listed stocks, more drop and new lows …

CIB Bank COMI.CA/CBKD.IL
EFG Hermes HRHO.CA/EFGD.IL
Orascom Telecom ORTE.CA/OTLD.IL
Orascom Const OCIC.CA/ORSD.IL

Egypt\London Dual Listed GDR Stocks Weekly Wrap

The last Updated charts of the main 4 GDRs: Egypt CIB Bank, EFG Hermes, Orascom Telcom & Construction

Egypt CIB Bank +5.4% – -8% Vol
EFG Hermes -13.4%, 191% Vol
Orascom Tele +4.3%, -10% Vol
Orascom Const. -15.8%, 36% Vol